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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 20

Cleveland Browns 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(:31) 7-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.62 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 20, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model