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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 87

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to CLE 41, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-J.Proche to JAX 49 for 10 yards (20-D.Thomas, 48-C.Muma).

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.64 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 87, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 45, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model