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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 26

Cleveland Browns 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 7-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model