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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 25

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 39-C.Little 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.40 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model