4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 18 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 28 yards to JAX 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +1.68 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.26 EP