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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 50

Green Bay Packers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to IND 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.34 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP