4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 54

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:24) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete short right to 28-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.78 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model