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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 23

Green Bay Packers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 44-B.Narveson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.95 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP