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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 16

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 7-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.10 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model