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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 13 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to IND 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.12 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model