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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 16

Green Bay Packers 13 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 44-B.Narveson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.46 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model