Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

(9:47) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to GB 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model