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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 44

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model