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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 10-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to LAC 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model