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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(:09) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to LAC 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.37 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model