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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 26

What Actually Happened

(5:59) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen to LAC 33 for 10 yards (22-E.Molden).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.12 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP