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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 53

Los Angeles Chargers 26 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to CAR 6, Center-47-J.Harris. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 19 for 13 yards (33-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.23 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.21 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model