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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 26

What Actually Happened

(2:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 30-C.Hubbard (44-S.Matlock).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.64 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 74, worth -1.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model