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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 51

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 16-J.Scott punts 38 yards to CAR 13, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -3.00 EP
KICK -1.99 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP