Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 83

Carolina Panthers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

(14:32) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to LAC 36, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-D.Davis to CAR 49 for 15 yards (83-D.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.10 EP
59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model