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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 30

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.36 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model