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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to LA 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 23-K.Williams to LA 29 for 12 yards (20-D.Dallas).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.97 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 77, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 34, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model