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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 4

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 18-T.Johnson [91-L.Collier].

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.91 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 4, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model