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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 8

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 34

What Actually Happened

(1:22) (No Huddle) 23-K.Williams up the middle to ARI 4 for 4 yards (7-K.White; 25-Z.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +3.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.50 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model