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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 72

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to ARI 23, Center-47-A.Ward. 4-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 40 for 17 yards (35-J.Hummel).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model