4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 35

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.98 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model