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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 25

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.55 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model