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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 84

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to BAL 30, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-D.Harty to BAL 45 for 15 yards (59-L.Masterson).

The Three Options

GO -3.41 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.30 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 84, worth -5.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 42, worth -2.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model