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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 33

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 2-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.57 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model