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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 30

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.69 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model