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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to LV 30, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Tucker to LV 30 for no gain (5-J.Armour-Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model