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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 23

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 11-J.Stout punts 24 yards to BAL 48, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-25-K.Hollman, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 48.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.48 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model