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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 26

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to LV 34 for 25 yards. Lateral to 43-J.Hill to LV 29 for 5 yards. 43-J.Hill pass incomplete short right to 72-A.Vorhees. PENALTY on BAL-43-J.Hill, Illegal Forward Pass, 0 yards, enforced at LV 29.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.33 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 59, worth -0.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP