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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to BAL 20, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 3-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.62 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model