4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 64

Dallas Cowboys 19 – New Orleans Saints 44

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to NO 11, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.46 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model