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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 44

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(7:08) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to NO 40 for 4 yards (90-B.Bresee).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.31 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT +0.72 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth +0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model