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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 34

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.56 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model