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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 31

New York Giants 12 – Washington Commanders 15

What Actually Happened

(14:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 27 for 4 yards (1-N.Igbinoghene).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.18 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model