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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 15

Washington Commanders 15 – New York Giants 18

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 3-A.Seibert 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model