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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 31

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:49) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard to NYG 25 for 6 yards (31-T.Nubin).

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.12 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model