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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Giants
4th & 4 at the 22
New York Giants 18 – Washington Commanders 18
What Actually Happened
(2:09) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 1-M.Nabers.
The Three Options
GO
+1.46 EP
What Happened
-
44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.27 EP
- 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP
KICK
+1.53 EP
Model's Pick
- 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
- 11% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT
-0.42 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
