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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 75

New York Jets 14 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to TEN 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 38 for 12 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.74 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model