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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 62

Tennessee Titans 10 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 4-R.Stonehouse punt is BLOCKED by 19-I.Charles, Center-46-M.Cox, ball out of bounds at TEN 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.83 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model