Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 18 at the 73

New York Jets 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

(9:19) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to TEN 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 32 for 9 yards (55-C.Surratt; 44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.96 EP
77% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model