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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 60

New York Jets 17 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to TEN 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 25 for 18 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.32 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model