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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 63

New York Jets 17 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to TEN 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.67 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP