Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 17 – New York Jets 17

(8:48) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to NYJ 26, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.36 EP
58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 81, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model