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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 61

New York Jets 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to TEN 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 16 for no gain (19-I.Charles).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model