4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 11

New England Patriots 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 13-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model