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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 1 at the 36
Seattle Seahawks 7 – New England Patriots 10
What Actually Happened
(8:02) 7-G.Smith right guard to NE 34 for 2 yards (33-A.Jennings).
The Three Options
GO
+1.87 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.64 EP
- 32% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP
KICK
+0.19 EP
- 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
- 33% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT
-0.20 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
